The German's absence from the games against Greece & Ireland adds to the sense he is a short-term, high-risk appointment
Remember the final weeks of the school year? When no one took it too seriously, when you could get away without doing your homework or even turning up, and you were casting your mind to the summer? That is how the England team feels right now as they prepare for their final Nations League games against Greece and Ireland.
Eight players, citing injury, have dropped out of the squad, replaced by youngsters with no previous international experience. The task at hand, getting promoted from Nations League B to A, feels like a low priority, especially with World Cup qualifiers around the corner. A bit like those internal exams you do a year before taking your GCSEs.
And to keep the analogy going, there is a new headmaster on the way, but they are not starting until the new year. In the meantime, the students only have to answer to the supply teacher, who they've already realised they can walk all over.
Thomas Tuchel has his reasons for not starting his role as England coach until January and leaving these last two games to Lee Carsley, but the new boss is already conspicuous by his absence. And he is wasting valuable time to assess his squad and plot the path to World Cup glory in 2026.
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Tuchel and the Football Association (FA) agreed he would begin work in January when he signed his contract back in October, and so Carlsey was always expected to complete the Nations League campaign, which he began in spectacular fashion with wins against Ireland and Finland before suffering a shock home defeat to Greece.
FA CEO Mark Bullingham explained at the time: “We always said to Lee he would have three camps and we were very clear he’d run the Nations League campaign. When we first spoke to Thomas, he wanted to have a singular focus on the World Cup. So it made sense on both sides for him to start on January 1."
Tuchel also reiterated his desire to just focus on the 2026 World Cup and not worry about the Nations League. He said: "It was important for me to narrow it down into a project and not lose the focus, to start in another competition, the Nations League, then go into qualification and the tournament. I wanted to have a clean start and a bit of time to recharge fully, start in January, and start the first camp in March. We will not have a lot of time."
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The German seemed to suggest that taking charge of Nations League games would distract from preparing for the World Cup qualifiers. It was strange logic, as he would still be working with the same players, and taking charge of them against Greece and Ireland would surely help him better understand his squad.
He pointed out that he will not have much time, and starting when he signed the contract in October would have given him an extra two months. But there is a very good chance he will have to take charge of Nations League games after all.
If England fail to beat Greece on Thursday, they will almost certainly miss out on top spot and automatic promotion to Nations League A, meaning that rather than beginning their World Cup qualification in March, will have to play a two-legged promotion play-off. The World Cup campaign, supposedly Tuchel's "singular focus", would therefore not begin until June at the earliest.
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And the irony is that Tuchel and the FA agreeing to delay his start until January makes it much more likely that England will miss out on automatic promotion. Carsley, who made some baffling tactical decisions against Greece in October, feels like a lame duck coach with waning authority.
He also has a depleted squad for his final few games due to big hitters such as Trent Alexander-Arnold, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, Jack Grealish and Phil Foden all dropping out of the squad, along with Levi Colwill and Aaron Ramsdale. Some of them appear to be genuinely injured, but would they all be missing the games if Tuchel was in place? It seems unlikely.
Whether England beat Greece or Ireland will not matter to Tuchel as he is only tied to the job until after the World Cup. It therefore makes little difference to him whether England are playing in the top tier in the Nations League or not in September 2026.
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But it makes a big difference to the long-term future of the national team. In the first two campaigns of the Nations League, England had to pit their wits against Croatia, Spain, Germany and Italy, as well as Hungary. The Hungarians aside, those are nations used to reaching major finals and winning them. Quite unlike Greece, Finland and Ireland or the rest of the League B teams in other groups, the pick of which are Turkey, Georgia, Wales, Austria, the Czech Republic and Ukraine.
A common criticism of England over the last three decades has been that they fold against the first quality side they meet at a tournament, and that is not going to change unless they meet these sides more often in competitive games.
There was another motive for Tuchel starting in January, as his assistant Anthony Barry, whom he worked with at Chelsea and then took with him to Bayern Munich, is still working with the Portugal squad as Roberto Martinez's No.2. All the same, England fans might have at least expected Tuchel to turn up to the games with Greece and Ireland and observe his new team from the stands.